Enrollment Forecast

Ask Joy to read your live admissions funnel and project the incoming class, best, likely, and worst case against your target, with a written read on which program or aid tier is running short while you can still act on it.

For Enrollment Management Directors of Admissions Financial Aid Directors Institutional Research
Sample prompt to Joy's Assistant

Read our admissions funnel for [term] and project the incoming class, best, likely, and worst case against our target of [target], and flag where the class is running short.

What it can look like

An illustrative example. Your output will reflect your own sources, data, and prompts.

Read our admissions funnel for Fall 2026 and project the incoming class, best, likely, and worst case against our target of 1,200 students, and flag where the class is running short.

I pulled your Fall 2026 funnel just now, 24,000 inquiries down to 3,000 projected admits, and weighted each stage against your last three years of conversion. The brief below runs the three scenarios against your 1,200 target and shows where the class is thin.

Fall 2026 enrollment projection

Your target for Fall 2026 is 1,200 deposits. The funnel today holds 24,000 inquiries, 6,000 completed applications, and 3,000 admits either issued or projected through the rest of the reading period. Weighted against your last three years of stage conversion, the likely class lands at 1,140, 95% of target and 60 students short. Best and worst case bracket that at 1,260 and 1,020.

1,260
Best case
1,140
Likely case
1,020
Worst case

Against the 1,200 target, the likely case lands 60 short, at 95%.

The whole gap traces to yield, not volume. Inquiries, applications, and admits are all on pace; deposits are converting at 38% against 40% last year. One program and one aid tier account for almost all of the softness.

ProgramAdmitsProjected yieldProjected deposits
Business90040%360
Engineering60031%185
Arts & Sciences1,00039%390
Nursing50041%205

Engineering is the drag. At last year's 39% yield those 600 admits would deliver 234 deposits; at the 31% they are converting now, 185, a 49-student hole that is most of your shortfall. Underneath it the pattern is affordability: admits whose aid offer covers less than half of net cost are yielding 24% across every program, against 41% for everyone above that line. About 380 of those high-need admits are still undeposited.

The move before the May 1 deposit deadline is that high-need tier. Re-packaging aid for the roughly 380 undecided high-need admits, plus a targeted counselor outreach to the Engineering cohort, is the highest-leverage play left in the cycle: lifting that tier from 24% to 30% recovers about 23 deposits, and closing even half of the Engineering gap on top of it brings the likely case within 15 of target. Volume can no longer be changed this late; yield in these two segments still can.

Want me to draft the deposit-deadline outreach for the high-need tier, or break this forecast down by program so each dean sees their own number?

From a live funnel to a class projection

Enrollment Forecast reads your funnel when you ask, projects each stage forward on your own historical conversion rates, and puts a best, likely, and worst case up against your target. You get a chart of the three scenarios and a written read on where the class is thin, so the gap is visible while there is still time to work it.

  1. Connect your admissions data

    Point Joy at your SIS and admissions CRM so it can read funnel counts at every stage, your historical conversion rates, and yield by program and aid tier.

  2. Ask for the projection

    Name the term and your class target. Joy weights the current funnel against your last few years of stage conversion and projects the incoming class.

  3. Read and refine the scenarios

    Review the best, likely, and worst case against target, then ask Joy to cut it by program, segment, or aid tier, or to test a different target.

  4. Work the lever

    Copy the read into your committee notes or cabinet deck, and ask Joy to draft the deposit-deadline outreach for the program or aid tier that is running short.

  5. Make it one click for your team

    Save this ask as a custom command on the assistant your team already uses, so anyone can run it in one step.

Make it yours

Three Scenarios

Best, likely, and worst case in one read, each with the yield assumption behind it, all measured against your target.

Your Own Conversion Rates

Projects each stage forward on your historical inquiry-to-deposit rates, not a generic benchmark, so the number reflects your funnel.

Where It Is Short

Names the program or aid tier dragging the class down, with the size of the gap, not just an overall total.

In Time to Act

Run it while deposits are still open so the shortfall shows up with the deadline ahead, not behind you.

By Program

Project each college or major on its own so every dean sees their own class number and gap.

By Aid Tier

Cut the forecast by award level to see how affordability is moving yield across the class.

Deadline Outreach Draft

For the segment that is short, have Joy draft the deposit-deadline message to undecided admits.

Pre-Committee Read

Run it the morning of your enrollment-committee meeting so you walk in with the current projection.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do you forecast college enrollment from the funnel?

Joy reads your current funnel, inquiries, applications, admits, and deposits, and projects each stage forward using your own historical conversion and yield rates. That produces a best, likely, and worst case for the incoming class, measured against the target you name, rather than a single guess.

Is this a scheduled report or something I run when I need it?

You run it on demand. Ask before an enrollment-committee meeting or a cabinet update and Joy reads the funnel at that moment and gives you the projection. It does not run on a schedule or send anything on its own.

How does Joy decide the likely case?

The likely case weights the current admit pool by the yield rates your funnel has actually produced over recent years, by stage and by segment. Best case assumes yield holds at the high end of that range, worst case assumes it softens, and each scenario states the assumption behind it.

Can it show where the class is short, by program or aid tier?

Yes. Joy breaks the projection down by program and by aid tier and flags the segments converting below their historical yield, with the size of each gap, so you can see whether the softness is one college, one award level, or spread across the class.

Does Joy change anything in our SIS or CRM?

No. Joy reads your admissions data to project the class and does not edit records, change statuses, or send messages. You act on the read in your own systems, and Joy can draft outreach for you to send.

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Financial Aid Explainer

Turn aid letters into a clear read of what a student actually pays.

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