Site: 4200 Westgate Blvd, Austin TX
Trade area: 3-mile radius
Model: Suburban inline, 2,400 sq ft
The demographics clear the model on population and income, with one flag on competitor proximity. Here are the four numbers that drive the decision.
78,400
Trade-area population
▲ 4.1% since 2023
$71,200
Median household income
Trade-area population of 78,400 sits comfortably above the 60,000 our units need to hit first-year sales, and it's still climbing, up 4.1% since 2023, the trend we look for rather than a market that has already peaked. Median household income of $71,200 clears the $65,000 floor, and the daytime population of 96,500 is a real asset: this corridor pulls in office and retail workers, so lunch traffic won't depend on residents alone.
Side by side against the model floors, the two make-or-break drivers clear with room to spare: trade-area population of 78,400 against a 60,000 floor, and median income of $71,200 against $65,000.
| Driver | This site | Model floor |
|---|
| Trade-area population | 78,400 | 60,000 |
| Median income | $71,200 | $65,000 |
- Population and growth: fits. 78,400 in the trade area, growing 4.1%, with 34% of households having children, the segment that drives weekend volume.
- Income: fits. $71,200 median lands in the sweet spot: high enough for the average ticket, not so high that a value brand feels out of place.
- Daytime population: strong. 96,500 people in the trade area during business hours supports a daypart mix that leans on lunch.
- Competitor distance: watch. The nearest competitor is 1.8 miles out, inside the 2-mile buffer the model prefers. Not a dealbreaker, but forecast year one assuming shared trade area, not exclusive.
Net read: this is a fit. Three of the four drivers clear the model with room to spare, and the one flag, a competitor at 1.8 miles, is a reason to sharpen the sales forecast, not to pass. I'd advance it to a site visit and pull the competitor's traffic pattern before you sign the LOI.
